000 AXNT20 KNHC 281630 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front prevails across the W Caribbean, extending from E coast of Cuba to inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from south of 04N between 13W and 30W. GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the N central Gulf coast maintains a broad ridge across the basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across the basin, with moderate seas. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and shifts east- southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds across the SE Gulf. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of central Florida Sat afternoon and evening.